对真实商业周期理论的重新评估

A Reassessment of Real Business Cycle Theory

American Economic Review · 2014
被引 63
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究了2008-2009年经济衰退中产出和工时下降但劳动生产率上升的现象,发现将无形资本投资纳入分析后,这一现象与真实商业周期理论并不矛盾。

Abstract

During the downturn of 2008-2009, output and hours fell significantly, but labor productivity rose. These facts have led many to conclude that there is a significant deviation between observations and current macrotheories that assume business cycles are driven, at least in part, by fluctuations in total factor productivities of firms. We show that once investment in intangible capital is included in the analysis, there is no inconsistency. Measured labor productivity rises if the fall in output is underestimated; this occurs when there are large unmeasured intangible investments. Microevidence suggests that these investments are large and cyclically important.

真实经济周期理论无形资本投资劳动生产率的周期性-2009年经济衰退