Dynamic Implications of Subjective Expectations: Evidence from Adult Smokers
利用主观预期数据构建动态离散选择模型，分析成年吸烟者的吸烟决策，发现主观生存概率与客观数据存在差异，且吸烟者比理性预期模型预测的更关注健康和前瞻性。
We set up a dynamic discrete choice model with subjective expectations data to explain adult smokers’ smoking decisions. We find important differences between subjective survival probabilities and those estimated using observed mortality data. Subjectively, individuals attach less weight to their health conditions and smoking choices and more weight to such factors as age, race, and parents’ longevity. Moreover, adult smokers are found to care more about their health and to be more forward-looking than predicted by a rational expectations framework. We further show the importance of unobserved heterogeneity in agents’ subjective survival probabilities, and discuss policy implications of subjective expectations.