Commodity price stabilisation: macroeconomic impacts and policy options
通过宏观计量模拟研究，评估巴布亚新几内亚出口林木业商品价格稳定计划的效果，发现其对宏观经济影响微乎其微，甚至对货币和外部部门稳定产生负面影响，建议采用技术变革、期货市场和农村储蓄等替代政策管理价格风险。
Abstract A macroeconometric simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation (CPS) schemes for the export tree crop industry in Papua New Guinea. The findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of CPS. Contrary to the expectation, CPS adversely affects the stability of monetary and external sectors (BOP). CPS policy has failed to stabilise the macroeconomy. The price stabilisation policies are no longer appropriate from the macroeconomic point of view. Technical change, futures market and rural savings are the possible alternative policy options to manage the price risk.