The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis
研究认为二战期间女性劳动力需求激增是美国战后婴儿潮的主要原因，通过量化动态一般均衡模型分析战时劳动力冲击对生育率和女性劳动参与的长期影响。
We argue that one major cause of the U.S. postwar baby boom was the increased demand for female labor during World War II. We develop a quantitativendynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility and female labor-force participation decisions. We use the model to assess the long-term implications of a one-time demand shock for female labor, such as the one experienced by American women during wartime mobilization. For the war generation, the shock leads to a persistent increase in female labor supply due to the accumulation of work experience. In contrast, youngernwomen who turn adult after the war face increased labor-market competition, which impels them to exit the labor market and start having children earlier. In our calibrated model, this general-equilibrium effect generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust, as well as patterns for agespecific labor-force participation and fertility rates that are consistent withnU.S data.