Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment
用状态空间方法分析库存投资预测误差是否源于测量误差，发现修订对预测精度影响不大，但误差方差随库存变化率增大，优化使用初版和修订数据可提升转折点预测。
A bstract-This paper uses state space methods to examine the extent to which forecast errors in inventory investment, especially at turning points, may be due to measurement error. It is found that while quarterly observations on both inventory and sales are subject to substantial revision, these revisions have on average only a modest impact on the accuracy of inventory investment forecasts. However, there is evidence that the variance of inventory measurement error increases with the rate of change of inventory stocks. This implies that substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, especially at turning points, are potentially available if the preliminary and revised data are used optimally.