Market Emergence and Transition: Arbitrage, Transaction Costs, and Autarky in China's Grain Markets
利用1988-1995年中国省级粮食价格数据，估计区间贸易的平价边界模型，分析经济转型中市场套利、交易成本和自给自足的变化，发现基础设施、管理激励改革和专业化政策是影响市场表现的关键因素。
Abstract Using trimonthly Chinese provincial grain prices from 1988 to 1995, we estimate a parity‐bounds model of interregional trade for four subperiods to characterize how multiple aspects of market performance change during the process of economic transition. For each period, we estimate the extent to which arbitrage opportunities are realized by traders, the transaction costs between location pairs, and the likelihood that regions do not trade. Trade restrictions cannot explain the pattern of uneven market development over time. Infrastructure bottlenecks, managerial incentive reforms, and production specialization policies, all were likely important factors affecting market performance.