The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity
研究发现收益率曲线斜率正向时，未来实际经济活动（消费、耐用品和投资）会增长；其预测能力优于领先指标指数、实际短期利率等传统指标，且独立于货币政策信息，对投资者和政策制定者都有用。
ABSTRACT A positive slope of the yield curve is associated with a future increase in real economic activity: consumption (nondurables plus services), consumer durables, and investment. It has extra predictive power over the index of leading indicators, real short‐term interest rates, lagged growth in economic activity, and lagged rates of inflation. It outperforms survey forecasts, both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample. Historically, the information in the slope reflected, inter alia , factors that were independent of monetary policy, and thus the slope could have provided useful information both to private investors and to policy makers.