The Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters: The Case of Floods
使用135个国家1985-2008年的大洪水数据，通过面板向量自回归模型发现洪水冲击对人均GDP增长有正向影响，但仅限于发展中国家和中等洪水，且农业部门影响更显著。
We use panel vector autoregression models to trace the dynamic response of output growth to flood shocks, using new data on large flood events in 135 countries between 1985 and 2008. Flood shocks tend to have a positive and significant average impact on per capita GDP growth. However, this effect is limited to developing countries and to moderate floods. The positive impact of floods is larger and more significant in the agricultural sector; while floods seem to have a direct effect on agricultural growth rates in developing countries, their effect on nonagricultural growth rates is mainly indirect. <i></i>