A Global Vector Autoregression Model for the Analysis of Wheat Export Prices
构建了一个全球动态模型，分析国际小麦价格对实际和金融冲击的短期与长期脉冲响应，有助于理解粮食价格波动及其对贫困和粮食安全的影响。
Food commodity price fluctuations have an important impact on poverty and food insecurity across the world. Conventional models have not provided a complete picture of recent price spikes in agricultural commodity markets, and there is an urgent need for appropriate policy responses. Perhaps new approaches are needed to better understand international spill‐overs, the feedback between the real and the financial sectors, as well as the link between food and energy prices. In this article, we present the results from a new worldwide dynamic model that provides the short and long‐run impulse responses of the international wheat price to various real and financial shocks.