Evaluating Alternative Prescribed Burning Policies to Reduce Net Economic Damages from Wildfire
通过构建野火风险模型，模拟不同计划烧除政策对福利的影响，发现佛罗里达州沃卢西亚县每年烧除13%的森林地能最大化净福利，且忽略对野火强度的影响会低估最优烧除率。
We estimate a wildfire risk model with a new measure of wildfire output, intensity‐weighted risk and use it in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate welfare changes from alternative prescribed burning policies. Using Volusia County, Florida as a case study, an annual prescribed burning rate of 13% of all forest lands maximizes net welfare; ignoring the effects on wildfire intensity may underestimate optimal rates of prescribed burning. Our estimated supply function for prescribed fire services is inelastic, suggesting that increasing contract prescribed fire services on public lands may produce rapidly escalating costs for private landowners and unintended distributional and “leakage” effects.