Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach*
构建了一个新凯恩斯主义模型,解释债务过剩导致部分主体被迫快速去杠杆、进而压低总需求的经济衰退机制,并自然引出费雪式债务通缩、流动性陷阱、节俭悖论、凯恩斯乘数及扩张性财政政策的合理性,对理解当前经济困境及日本“失去的十年”、大萧条等历史事件有重要启示。
Abstract In this article we present a simple new Keynesian–style model of debt-driven slumps—that is, situations in which an overhang of debt on the part of some agents, who are forced into rapid deleveraging, is depressing aggregate demand. Making some agents debt-constrained is a surprisingly powerful assumption. Fisherian debt deflation, the possibility of a liquidity trap, the paradox of thrift and toil, a Keynesian-type multiplier, and a rationale for expansionary fiscal policy all emerge naturally from the model. We argue that this approach sheds considerable light both on current economic difficulties and on historical episodes, including Japan’s lost decade (now in its 18th year) and the Great Depression itself.