Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions
构建包含所有股东现金流的股息率指标，发现其对美国股票回报有强且稳定的预测能力，且通过多项稳健性检验。
This paper provides new evidence on the predictive power of dividend yields for U.S. aggregate stock returns. Following Miller and Modigliani, we construct a measure of the dividend yield that includes all cash flows to shareholders. We show that this alternative cash-flow yield has strong and stable predictive power for returns, and appears robust to a battery of tests that have been proposed in recent critiques of the predictability literature.