What's News in Business Cycles
在动态随机一般均衡模型下，用最大似然和贝叶斯方法估计预期冲击对战后美国商业周期的贡献，发现预期冲击解释了产出、消费、投资和就业约一半的波动。
In the context of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model, we perform classical maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimations of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our identification approach relies on the fact that forward-looking agents react to anticipated changes in exogenous fundamentals before such changes materialize. It further allows us to distinguish changes in fundamentals by their anticipation horizon. We find that anticipated shocks account for about half of predicted aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment, and employment.