Priority Shifting and the Dynamics of Managing Eradicable Infectious Diseases
通过一个两种传染病的动态传播模型，模拟不同疫苗接种决策规则，发现优先级转移程度越高，成本效益越低，提示政策制定者需要长期动态视角来评估可根除疾病的干预措施。
Public health budget constraints force policy makers to prioritize resources toward those interventions that yield the highest perceived benefits. Intuitively, it appears optimal to focus resources on affordable interventions against prevalent diseases. However, due to the dynamics of infectious disease eradication, policies focusing on a static perception of priorities may lead to economically suboptimal outcomes. Using a hypothetical two-disease dynamic transmission model, we explore several different decision rules with respect to vaccination policy for eradicable diseases. The simulations show that cost-effectiveness decreases as the extent of priority shifting increases. This model suggests the need for a longer-term dynamic perspective to appropriately recognize costs and benefits of different policies for eradicable diseases.