The Emergence of Emerging Technologies
提出技术变革的断裂通常不是源于技术本身的激进进步，而是现有技术迁移到新应用领域所致，并借鉴生物学中的物种形成和间断平衡理论来解释这一过程，帮助管理者应对和利用此类变革。
What is discontinuous about the moment of radical technological change? We suggest that the discontinuity typically does not lie in a radical advancement in technology itself; rather, the discontinuity stems from a shift of an existing technical lineage to a new domain of application. Seeming revolutions such as wireless communication and the internet did not stem from an isolated technical breakthrough. Rather, the spectacular commercial impact was achieved when an existing technology was re-applied in a new application domain. We use the biological notion of speciation events, which form the basis for the theory of punctuated equilibrium, to reconcile the process of incremental change within a given line of technical development with the radical change associated with the shift of an existing technology to a new application domain. We then use this lens to explore how managers can cope with, and potentially exploit, such change processes. 3