Ex Ante Research Evaluation and Regional Trade Flows: Maize in Kenya
使用空间均衡模型评估肯尼亚六个地区玉米研究的潜在影响，发现研究虽能增产，但需额外年增1.5%-2%才能实现自给自足，进口限制虽能保障自给但损害多数净消费者的福利。
Public sector investment in agricultural research is an important component of developing country efforts to bolster staple cereal production in the face of rapid population growth. This paper uses a spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the potential impact of maize research in six regions of Kenya. The application highlights the important role of research in meeting future food needs, as well as the geographic variability of producer and consumer benefits from technology and trade policy options. Despite significant research induced supply shifts, Kenya will require additional production increases of 1.5 to 2 per cent per year to meet stated goals of self‐sufficiency in maize production with open markets. Import restrictions can ensure self‐sufficiency and generate producer welfare gains at greater expense to the majority of Kenyans who are net consumers of maize. In the debate over trade policy, public sector investments in maize research should be seen as a potential mechanism to compensate producers for welfare losses associated with market liberalisation.