Great crashes in history: have they lessons for today?
回顾历史上资产市场崩盘和银行系统危机的关系，发现崩盘不必然导致危机，无危机的崩盘对经济影响不大，最后贷款人政策可防止危机发生，这些教训适用于东南亚等近期事件。
Crashes in asset markets have been common throughout history, while financial crises, defined as crises in the banking system, have in some countries and periods been as common, and in others much more rare. This article examines historical attitudes to those events, and looks at some of the events themselves. It is concluded first, that crashes need not inevitably be followed by crises; second, that crashes without crises do not have serious effects on the economy; and third, that there is a policy instrument, the lender of last resort, to prevent financial crises from occurring even should there be a substantial preceding fall in asset markets. These lessons from history, so it is argued, hold for recent events in South-east Asia and, indeed, apply generally to any economy. The present can still learn from the past. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.