有效市场假说及其批评者

The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2003
被引 2108 · 同刊同年前 2%
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

综述了对有效市场假说的批评,包括行为经济学和计量经济学对股价可预测性的挑战,并认为股票市场比许多近期学术论文所声称的更有效、更不可预测。

Abstract

Revolutions often spawn counterrevolutions and the efficient market hypothesis in finance is no exception. The intellectual dominance of the efficient-market revolution has more been challenged by economists who stress psychological and behavorial elements of stock-price determination and by econometricians who argue that stock returns are, to a considerable extent, predictable. This survey examines the attacks on the efficient market hypothesis and the relationship between predictability and efficiency. I conclude that our stock markets are more efficient and less predictable than many recent academic papers would have us believe.

有效市场假说市场效率股票价格可预测性行为金融学