Real Options and Product Life Cycles
构建了一个纳入产品生命周期的期权估值框架，用于评估调整项目产能的实物期权，发现标准方法低估收缩期权、高估扩张期权，对高科技行业资本投资决策有重要启示。
In this paper, I develop an option valuation framework that explicitly incorporates a product life cycle. I then use the framework to value the real option to change a project's capacity. Standard techniques for valuing real options typically ignore product life cycle models and specify instead a constant expected growth rate for demand or price. I show that this specification can lead to significant error in the valuation of capacity options. In particular, the standard technique tends to undervalue the option to contract capacity and overvalue the option to expand capacity. This result has important implications for capital investment decisions, especially in high-technology industries that feature regular introductions of newly improved products.