Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies
指出常用的“平准化成本”指标不适合比较间歇性发电(如风电、太阳能)与可调度发电(如核电、煤电)的经济性,会高估前者,并建议整合生产曲线、电价波动和全生命周期成本进行更合理的评估。
Economic evaluations of alternative electric generating technologies typically rely on comparisons between their expected “levelized cost” per MWh supplied. I demonstrate that this metric is inappropriate for comparing intermittent generating technologies like wind and solar with dispatchable generating technologies like nuclear, gas combined cycle, and coal. It overvalues intermittent generating technologies compared to dispatchable base load generating technologies. It also likely overvalues wind generating technologies compared to solar generating technologies. Integrating differences in production profiles, the associated variations in wholesale market prices of electricity, and life-cycle costs associated with different generating technologies is necessary to provide meaningful comparisons between them.