The Effect of Mortgage Payment Reduction on Default: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinance Program
利用住房可负担再融资计划数据，发现月供降低10%可使每月违约风险下降约10-11%，对评估房贷纾困政策有参考价值。
This article evaluates the effect of payment reduction on mortgage default within the context of the Home Affordable Refinance Program. We find that mortgage default is sensitive to payment reduction using univariate, duration and hazard modeling approaches. A relative risk Cox model of default with time‐varying covariates estimates that a 10% reduction in mortgage payment is associated with about a 10–11% reduction in monthly default hazard for loans. This finding is robust to the inclusion of empirically important mortgage risk drivers (such as current loan‐to‐value and FICO score) as well as controlling for selection effects based on observables.