How Important Is Precommitment for Monetary Policy?
通过三个美国经济模型，量化了承诺型与相机抉择型货币政策之间的福利差异，用通胀偏离目标值的永久性偏差来衡量，发现该偏差在0.05到3.6个百分点之间，且传导滞后和信息滞后对福利增益至关重要。
We quantify the welfare differential between precommitment and discretionary monetary policy in three estimated models of the U.S. economy by calculating the permanent deviation of inflation from target that in welfare terms is equivalent to moving from discretion to precommitment. Using a range of reasonable central bank preference parameters, this "inflation equivalent" ranges from 0.05 to 3.6 percentage points, with a mid-point of either 0.15 or 1-1.5 percentage points, depending on the model. In addition to the degree of forward-looking behavior, we show that the existence of transmission lags and/or information lags is crucial for determining the welfare gain from precommitment.