The Duration of Employment Opportunities in U.S. Manufacturing
利用1963-1982年美国制造业工厂的纵向数据，估算就业岗位的存续时长，发现1982年有30%的岗位已存在至少19年，59.6%的岗位总寿命将超过20年，表明长期就业机会与高流动率并存。
Long-duration employment opportunities are a necessary condition for workers to hold lifetime jobs. This paper uses longitudinal data on individual U.S. manufacturing plants from 1963-1982 to estimate the age and completed spell distributions for employment positions. The results indicate that, of the employment opportunities in progress in the U.S. manufacturing sector in 1982, 30.0% were at least 19 years old and 59.6% would have a completed length of at least 20 years. High rates of turnover in employment positions coexist with a large number of long-duration employment opportunities because the turnover tends to be concentrated within a subset of the producers. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.