Forecasting Performance of Corn and Soybean Harvest Futures Contracts
研究发现1973年后12月玉米和11月大豆期货的春季价格不再是收获价格的良好预测，预测精度下降与产量预测误差增加及政府贷款率干预减少有关，提醒生产者不要仅依赖期货价格进行资源配置。
Abstract In contrast to earlier periods, post 1973 spring prices of December corn and November soybean futures contracts have not been good forecasts of harvest price. Regression analysis of price forecast variance before and after 1973 indicates that the decline in forecasting accuracy is related to increased yield forecast errors and to reduced interference of government loan rates on market price determination. Since these futures are poor forecasts, producers should not rely on futures prices alone to allocate resources at planting time unless they simultaneously forward price.