Withering Government Spending Multipliers
实证文献显示过去30年政府支出对消费和产出的拉动效果减弱。本文用新凯恩斯模型证明，实际政府支出观测误差可解释乘数缩小，并指出货币政策演变和全球化是关键因素。
ABSTRACT The empirical literature has documented a weakening of the consumption and output responses to an increase in government spending during the last 30 years. We show that a New Keynesian model in which real government spending is observed with measurement errors can account for the reduction in the size of government spending multipliers. The model implies—consistent with empirical evidence presented by Ilzetzki, Mendoza, and Vegh (2010)—that the evolution of monetary policy and greater globalization (increasing international trade and decreasing capital controls) are key factors in this development.