Monetary Regime Switches and Central Bank Preferences
指出，通过简单利率规则分析政策体制转换可能误导对央行偏好变化的判断，并直接建模政策制定者的行为与目标来研究体制转换。
Monetary policy objectives and targets are not necessarily constant over time. The regime-switching literature has typically analyzed and interpreted changes in policymakers' behavior through simple interest rate rules. This paper analyzes policy regime switches by explicitly modeling policymakers' behavior and objectives. We show that changes in the parameters of simple rules do not necessarily correspond to changes in policymakers' preferences. In fact, capturing and interpreting regime changes in preferences through interest rate rules can lead to misleading results.