Risk Attitudes of Children and Adults: Choices Over Small and Large Probability Gains and Losses
研究5至64岁参与者在收益和损失情境下对简单赌博的选择，发现儿童倾向于低估低概率事件、高估高概率事件，这种倾向随年龄增长减弱，成人平均使用客观概率评估风险。
Abstract In this paper we examine how risk attitudes change with age. We present participants from age 5 to 64 with choices between simple gambles and the expected value of the gambles. The gambles are over both gains and losses, and vary in the probability of the non-zero payoff. Surprisingly, we find that many participants are risk seeking when faced with high-probability prospects over gains and risk averse when faced with small-probability prospects. Over losses we find the exact opposite. Children's choices are consistent with the underweighting of low-probability events and the overweighting of high-probability ones. This tendency diminishes with age, and on average adults appear to use the objective probability when evaluating risky prospects.