The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks
利用总统演讲和国会报告等叙事记录，识别战后美国主要税收政策变化的外生部分，发现增税对经济产出有显著且强烈的紧缩效应，且影响远大于传统测度结果。
This paper investigates the impact of tax changes on economic activity. We use the narrative record, such as presidential speeches and Congressional reports, to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This analysis allows us to separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions and those taken for more exogenous reasons. The behavior of output following these more exogenous changes indicates that tax increases are highly contractionary. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes.