Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model Tells Us*
利用意大利数据估计期权价值模型，量化财务激励对退休选择的影响，并考虑动态自选择偏差，发现低估休闲价值会高估养老金改革的效果。
Abstract Using Italian data, we estimate an option value model to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this is the first empirical study to estimate the conditional multiple‐years model put forward by Stock and Wise (1990) . This implies that we account for dynamic self‐selection bias. We also present an extended version of this model in which the marginal value of leisure is random. For the female sample, the model is able to predict almost perfectly the age‐specific hazard rates. For the male sample, we obtain a good fit. Dynamic self‐selection results in a downward bias in the estimate of the marginal utility of leisure. We perform a simulation study to gauge the effects of a dramatic pension reform. Underestimation of the value of leisure translates into sizeable over‐prediction of the impact of reform. Due to lack of data, results for males should be interpreted with caution since we are not able to fully correct for dynamic self‐selection bias.