Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks
量化了美国经济活动和通胀变化如何影响国债市场中水平、斜率和曲率风险的市场价格，发现1985至2007年间这些风险解释了远期期限溢价的大部分变动。
ABSTRACT This paper quantifies how variation in economic activity and inflation in the United States influences the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage‐free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by output and inflation risks that are unspanned by (imperfectly correlated with) information about the shape of the yield curve. Our model reveals that, between 1985 and 2007, these risks accounted for a large portion of the variation in forward terms premiums, and there was pronounced cyclical variation in the market prices of level and slope risks.