Implications of the Macroeconomic Outlook for Agriculture
基于Bosworth和Lawrence的宏观经济情景，分析其对农业的影响，包括农场价格、现金收入、财富和财务压力，适合关注农业与宏观经济关系的学者。
This paper analyzes the implications for agriculture of the macroeconomic scenarios put forth by Bosworth and Lawrence. A substantial body of work in recent years has developed both the theoretical framework and empirical evidence on the channels of influence between the macroeconomy and agriculture. The AAEA-sponsored preconference workshop this year, entitled Value of Large-Scale Aggregate Models for Economic Policy Analysis, manifests the profession's interest in quantifying the effects that macroeconomic factors have upon the economic performance and financial health of agriculture. This paper draws upon the findings of previous work in general terms, but more specifically we present the agricultural implications of two alternative macroeconomic environments implied by an existing macroeconomic model which emphasizes agriculture's interface with the macroeconomy. The second section of this paper reviews the major findings of the literature on transmission mechanisms linking agriculture with the general economy. The third section provides key details of how agriculture fares under Bosworth and Lawrence's outlook for the general economy through 1990, including the implications for farm prices, cash receipts, wealth, and financial stress. The fourth section discusses the consequences of one potential deviation from Bosworth and Lawrence's out-