Impact of the smoking ban on the volume of bar sales in Ireland – evidence from time series analysis
首次估计爱尔兰全面禁烟令对酒吧销售量的影响，使用ARIMAX模型发现禁烟后酒吧销售量下降4.6%。
This paper is the first to estimate the economic impact of a comprehensive smoking ban in all enclosed public places of work, on bars in Ireland. The demand in bars, represented by a monthly index of sales volume, is explained by relative prices in bars, prices of alcohol sold in off-licences and the aggregate retail sales (ARS) as a proxy for general economic activity and incomes. The smoking ban is included into the model as a step dummy and the modelling is done using ARIMAX strategy. The results show a reduction in the volume of sales in bars by -4.6% (p<0.01) following the ban.