The dynamics of Chinese rural households' participation in labor markets
基于浙江农户1995-2002年数据，用离散时间风险模型分析家庭在自给自足、兼业和全职农业间的状态转换，发现状态持续时间越长转换风险越低，且开始参与或兼业的概率高于退出或回归全职农业。
Abstract The work is devoted to the dynamics of labor market participation of Chinese rural households. Based on a theoretical farm household framework the choice between four distinct labor market participation states is empirically analyzed. Using household data over the period 1995–2002 from the province Zhejiang we apply a discrete time hazard approach to analyze households' labor market participation histories. In particular, we investigate the movements between autarky and participation in general and, more specifically, the shifts between part‐time and full‐time farming. Estimation results suggest significant duration dependence, more precisely, a decreasing risk of moving from one state to another with an increasing time a household occupies one of these states. Further, the likelihoods of starting any participation in labor markets and to start part‐time farming are considerably higher than to end participation or to return to full‐time farming. In addition, we find that labor market participation decisions are significantly related to several household and farm characteristics.