Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis
考察基于计量模型进行可靠经济政策分析的条件，重点讨论外生性、协整、因果性和不变性等概念，并用英国货币需求模型说明主要分析要点。
This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general, and these concepts are then applied to the use of econometric models in policy analysis when the variables are cointegrated. Implications follow for model constancy, the Lucas critique, equation inversion, and impulse response analysis. A small money-demand model for the United Kingdom illustrates the main analytical points. This article then summarizes the other articles in this issue's special section on exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis.