A Structural Land‐Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach
提出一种主动方法，通过结构性土地利用模型分析农业适应气候变化，识别研发目标。研究发现以色列长期损失源于作物投入需求增加和降水分布变化，为政策制定者提供适应方向。
This article proposes a proactive approach for analyzing agricultural adaptation to climate change wherein agricultural production technologies are regarded as potential targets of research and development (R&D) efforts. We develop a structural land‐use model wherein farmers maximize profit by allocating their land among crop‐technology bundles. Proactive R&D directions are derived by identifying the technological attributes through which climate change reduces overall agricultural profitability, despite farmers reallocating their land into bundles. We find that in Israel, long‐term losses stem from increases in crops' input requirements and changes in the inter‐ and intra‐annual distribution of precipitations. Therefore, we identify these vulnerable points as the main potential targets of further R&D efforts.