Forecasting Errors of New Venture Survival
研究了创业者进入市场时对生存概率的预测误差，发现他们普遍过度乐观，且预测几乎无法区分企业生存与失败，约四分之一创业者不提供预测。
This article studies entrepreneurs' forecast errors around market entry. Using data on nascent entrepreneurs in the U.S. and start‐ups in F inland, we find that besides being overoptimistic on average in both countries, entrepreneurs' survival expectations can barely distinguish survival from exits. Moreover, about one fourth of the entrepreneurs do not provide an estimate for the survival of a typical venture. However, among those that do provide it, the estimates are less overoptimistic. We also compare the forecast accuracy of entrepreneurs to those of macroeconomic forecasters. Our findings provide guidance for the development of positive theories of entrepreneurial belief formation and overoptimism. Copyright © 2014 S trategic M anagement S ociety.