Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis
研究发现,均衡失业的动态变化能显著增强财政政策的有效性。当经济陷入流动性陷阱时,政府支出扩张能提高产出并降低失业率,且失业的持续性使当前支出产生持久影响,引发就业与支出的良性螺旋。
This article shows that equilibrium unemployment dynamics can significantly increase the efficacy of fiscal policy. In response to a shock that brings the economy into a liquidity trap, an expansion in government spending increases output and causes a fall in the unemployment rate. Since movements in unemployment are persistent, the effects of current spending prevail into the future, leading to an enduring rise in income. As an enduring rise in income boosts private demand, an increase in government spending sets in motion a virtuous employment-spending spiral with large effects on macroeconomic aggregates.