The Information Content of Dividend Changes: Cash Flow Signaling, Overinvestment, and Dividend Clienteles
检验了股利变化公告的信息含量，发现股价反应与标准化股利变化和股利收益率正相关，但与托宾Q无关，支持现金流信号和股利客户群假说，不支持过度投资假说。
We examine the cash flow signaling, overinvestment, and dividend clientele explanations for the information content of dividend change announcements. After simultaneously con? trolling for the standardized dividend change, dividend yield, and Tobin's Q, we find that announcement period excess returns are positively related to the magnitude ofthe standard? ized dividend change and to the dividend yield, but unrelated to Tobin's Q. We provide further evidence on the cash flow signaling and overinvestment hypotheses by examin? ing revisions in analysts' earnings forecasts and changes in capital expenditures following dividend change announcements. We find that analysts significantly revise their earnings forecasts following dividend changes and that Q < 1 firms actually increase their capital expenditures following dividend increases and decrease them following dividend decreases. Overall, our findings support the cash flow signaling and dividend clientele hypotheses for stock price reactions to dividend change announcements, but provide little support for the overinvestment hypothesis.