Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning
利用密歇根消费者调查的面板数据，估计了一个通胀预期的学习模型，发现个人通胀经历对短期预期有显著影响，而公共信息对长期预期更重要，且女性、少数族裔和低教育群体的异质性更高。
Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of private information and lifetime inflation experience. Life experience inflation has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for 1‐year‐ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer horizon expectations. Even controlling for life experience inflation and public information, idiosyncratic information explains a nontrivial proportion of the inflation forecasts of agents. Women, ethnic minorities, and less educated agents have a higher degree of heterogeneity in their idiosyncratic information, and give less importance to recent movements in inflation.