Agricultural policy uncertainty and farm level adjustments—the case of direct payments and incentives for farmland investment
研究了欧盟共同农业政策区域支付体系改革的不确定性如何影响农田投资激励，利用瑞典农民的主观概率信念调查数据，发现政策不确定性会导致改革前过度投资，且影响波动且模糊。
A dynamic stochastic business-level land valuation model is derived to analyse how agricultural policy uncertainty regarding reform of the CAP area payment system affects farmland investment incentives. Subjective probability beliefs of Swedish farmers were collected in a survey and used to illustrate the implications of the model. The results show the working of adjustments in current farmland investment incentives triggered by the announcement of agricultural policy programmes linked to farmland. Lack of complete information causes inefficiency by inducing farm operators to over-invest before the reform date if they expect a reform that is likely to reduce their area payment. Policy uncertainty has surprisingly volatile and ambiguous effects on farmland investment incentives. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.