Four Scenarios of Development and the Role of Economic Policy
通过分析发展指标动态，将发展分为四种情景，并用回归模型研究政策如何影响国家实现最优情景的概率，发现适当政策能有效提升发展前景。
Abstract We ask which economic policies can help a country create the most favourable conditions for development. We observe that the dynamics of several development indicators can be grouped into four clusters, each cluster corresponding to a different combination of growth and changes in inequality. Based on this observation, we define four different development scenarios and use limited dependent variable regressions to study how structural and policy factors affect a country's probability to achieve the most (or the least) favourable of these scenarios. Our results point to a comforting picture: through the choice of appropriate policies countries can effectively increase their chances to achieve the most favourable development scenario.