The Presence of Something or the Absence of Nothing: Increasing Theoretical Precision in Management Research
指出管理研究中理论检验面临一个悖论：方法越严谨，理论越难被证伪。原因在于多数理论只做方向性预测（如正相关或负相关），而精确度不足。文章评估了理论精确度现状，提出了提升精确度的指南，并讨论了克服障碍的方法。
In management research, theory testing confronts a paradox described by Meehl in which designing studies with greater methodological rigor puts theories at less risk of falsification. This paradox exists because most management theories make predictions that are merely directional, such as stating that two variables will be positively or negatively related. As methodological rigor increases, the probability that an estimated effect will differ from zero likewise increases, and the likelihood of finding support for a directional prediction boils down to a coin toss. This paradox can be resolved by developing theories with greater precision, such that their propositions predict something more meaningful than deviations from zero. This article evaluates the precision of theories in management research, offers guidelines for making theories more precise, and discusses ways to overcome barriers to the pursuit of theoretical precision.