异质且错误预期的货币政策

Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous and Misspecified Expectations

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking · 2009
被引 25
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

研究私人部门预期形成机制异质且存在错误预期时,中央银行应如何制定政策,结论是央行应忽略不准确的预期,仅基于准确预期制定政策。

Abstract

In the recent literature on monetary policy and learning, it has been suggested that private sector's expectations should play a role in the policy rule implemented by the central bank, as they could improve the ability of the policymaker to stabilize the economy. Private sector's expectations, in these studies, are often taken to be homogeneous and rational, at least in the limit of a learning process. In this paper, instead, we consider the case in which private agents are heterogeneous in their expectations formation mechanisms and hold heterogeneous expectations in equilibrium. We investigate the impact of this heterogeneity in expectations on central bank's policy implementation and on the ensuing economic outcomes, and the general result that emerges is that the central bank should disregard inaccurate private sector expectations and solely base its policy on the accurate ones.

异质性预期货币政策学习机制预期管理