Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open‐economy model
基于澳大利亚、加拿大和新西兰的数据估计模型，发现最优货币政策不应响应名义汇率，即使存在本币定价和参数不确定性，汇率脱节是关键原因。
Abstract This paper explores optimal policy design in an estimated model of three small open economies: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Within a class of generalized Taylor rules, we show that to stabilize a weighted objective of output consumer price inflation and nominal interest variation optimal policy does not respond to the nominal exchange. This is despite the presence of local currency pricing and due, in large part, to observed exchange rate disconnect in these economies. Optimal policies that account for the uncertainty of model estimates, as captured by the parameters' posterior distribution, similarly exhibit a lack of exchange rate response. In contrast to Brainard ( 1967 ), the presence of parameter uncertainty can lead to more or less aggressive policy responses, depending on the model at hand. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.