Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show
通过分析电视游戏节目《一掷千金》中参赛者的风险选择，发现其行为违背预期效用理论，而更符合前景理论，受先前结果影响，且路径依赖在简单高额赌注下仍显著。
We examine the risky choices of contestants in the popular TV game show “Deal or No Deal” and related classroom experiments. Contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory, the choices can be explained in large part by previous outcomes experienced during the game. Risk aversion decreases after earlier expectations have been shattered by unfavorable outcomes or surpassed by favorable outcomes. Our results point to reference-dependent choice theories such as prospect theory, and suggest that path-dependence is relevant, even when the choice problems are simple and well defined, and when large real monetary amounts are at stake.