The Inefficiency of the Mean Analyst Forecast as a Summary Forecast of Earnings
从理论上证明，平均分析师预测在汇总信息时效率低下，因为它对分析师共有信息赋予过多权重，而对私有信息赋予不足。一个更精确的盈利摘要预测是当前平均预测加上平均预测变化的正倍数。
We show analytically that mean analyst forecasts inefficiently aggregate information by assigning too much weight to analysts’ common information relative to their private information when used as a summary forecast measure of forthcoming earnings. A more precise summary forecast of earnings than the current mean forecast is the current mean forecast plus a positive multiple of the change in the mean forecast.