A ROBUST APPROACH TO PREDICTING FLUCTUATIONS IN STATE‐LEVEL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH*
提出一种复合预测模型，用于稳健预测州级就业变化及相关税收收入，以保护州预算流程，并以佐治亚州非农就业为例验证其准确性。
ABSTRACT. Economic forecasting models are famous for performing well over short time periods and then suffering rapidly deteriorating performance when economic conditions change. This behavior makes composite forecasting models valuable in situations where large forecast errors cause considerable losses. A composite forecasting model for state‐level employment is proposed here. This method is designed to protect state budget processes by producing robust forecasts of changes in employment and the related revenue collections. An application to Georgia nonagricultural employment is presented which demonstrates the benefits of this technique. The example shows that the method can forecast such series accurately without the forecaster having to choose in advance a single model specification to all economic conditions.