House Price Booms, Current Account Deficits, and Low Interest Rates
研究了美国等国家房价与经常账户负相关的原因,发现国内因素可解释此现象,但无法解释全球实际利率下降;美国扩张性货币政策与新兴经济体盯住美元的汇率制度对理解利率变化至关重要,但对房价和经常账户影响甚微。
Domestic factors, such as credit and preference shocks, can explain the negative correlation between house prices and the current account in the U.S. and several other countries before the recent crisis. These shocks, however, cannot account for the fall of world real interest rates observed in the data. Expansionary monetary policy shocks in the U.S., coupled with exchange rate pegs to the dollar in emerging economies, are crucial to understanding the evolution of the real interest rate. Yet, monetary policy factors play virtually no role for house prices and the current account.