A contribution to the theory of financial fragility and crisis
用模型刻画国内金融危机的三个相互关联方面：债务融资的消费繁荣、向庞氏融资的演化以及金融部门系统性流动性不足，并探讨了不同类型危机的脆弱性特征及其政策含义。
The paper outlines formally three interrelated facets of a financial crisis of domestic origin: (i) a debt financed consumption boom supported by rising asset prices that ends in debt deflation; (ii) a related process of financial evolution of economic agents towards Ponzi finance; (iii) resulting systemic illiquidity afflicting the financial sector as a prelude to crisis. Being placed in relation to theories of exogenous and endogenous money, the models indicate how the co-evolution of the real and the financial sector results in financial fragility of different types. The paper explores formally the specific features of the fragility of various episode of crisis, which share a common pattern of gradual build up followed by a sudden collapse of financial confidence through the interaction between the real and the financial sector, and concludes with implications for policy.