Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts
研究证券分析师的职业担忧如何影响其盈利预测，发现预测准确的分析师更易获得好职业结果，而乐观预测者（尤其承销自家股票时）也受奖励，市场狂热期此现象更明显。
We examine security analysts' career concerns by relating their earnings forecasts to job separations. Relatively accurate forecasters are more likely to experience favorable career outcomes like moving up to a high‐status brokerage house. Controlling for accuracy, analysts who are optimistic relative to the consensus are more likely to experience favorable job separations. For analysts who cover stocks underwritten by their houses, job separations depend less on accuracy and more on optimism. Job separations were less sensitive to accuracy and more sensitive to optimism during the recent stock market mania. Brokerage houses apparently reward optimistic analysts who promote stocks.